Earlier, I wrote about Arlen Specter's re-election problems. Some were floating the idea that he should switch parties. While he repeatedly claimed that he would not be switching parties...he changed his mind. Needing to win re-election will do that.
While this will make a filibuster proof Senate, it will not give the Democratic Party 60 guaranteed votes. Specter has the reputation of being very independent...but the voting record shows otherwise.
Granted, Specter has always been a moderate Republican, but with today's Republican Party being as conservative as it is that isn't saying much. Specter is far from being a liberal.
Will he ease through re-election? Maybe. Maybe not. Specter has already pissed off labor by announcing that he doesn't support the Employee Free Choice Act. Labor had promised to support Specter, regardless of party affiliation, if he would support EFCA.
Specter announced that he didn't support EFCA (using the myth that EFCA removes the secret ballot as a reason) and in his party changing statement, Specter reiterated his lack of support.
Specter clearly isn't going liberal...he just wants to win re-election. He knows he probably can't beat Pat Toomey in a primary so this move is pure politics. He is just saving his own skin.
A mere month ago, Specter told The Hill he intended to stay with the Republican Party.
Obviously, disagree with his assessment that America "desperately needs a two party system". That being said, clearly political expediency trumped his belief about his important role in the two party system.
Staying a Republican would require Specter to defeat Toomey in a primary. Back in 2004, Specter beat Toomey by the slightest of margins. Since that time, Specter's approval ratings from Republicans have gone down the drain.
With a disapproval rating that low, Specter could read the writing on the wall. A switch to the other side was in order to save his political hide.
Specter's switch won't alter the political landscape at all. While the Senate will technically have 60 Democratic seats, Specter will vote the same way he always has...62% with the Republicans. Specter's switch won't suddenly make him vote 62% with Democrats. It just won't.
It will, however, really piss off the Republican Party who will now be even less inclined to work with the Democratic Party. Prepare to see a whole lot of nothing getting done in government.
Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter will switch his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat and announced today that he will run in 2010 as a Democrat, according to a statement he released this morning.
Specter's decision would give Democrats a 60 seat filibuster proof majority in the Senate assuming Democrat Al Franken is eventually sworn in as the next senator from Minnesota. (Former senator Norm Coleman is appealing Franken's victory in the state Supreme Court.)
"I have decided to run for re-election in 2010 in the Democratic primary," said Specter in a statement. "I am ready, willing and anxious to take on all comers and have my candidacy for re-election determined in a general election."
He added: "Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right. Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats. I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans."
While this will make a filibuster proof Senate, it will not give the Democratic Party 60 guaranteed votes. Specter has the reputation of being very independent...but the voting record shows otherwise.
Specter sided with the GOP on 62 percent of votes from when he entered the Senate in 1981 through last year, according to a University of San Diego database of votes. His highest party unity score: 81 percent in 2003-2004, when Toomey last challenged him.
Granted, Specter has always been a moderate Republican, but with today's Republican Party being as conservative as it is that isn't saying much. Specter is far from being a liberal.
Will he ease through re-election? Maybe. Maybe not. Specter has already pissed off labor by announcing that he doesn't support the Employee Free Choice Act. Labor had promised to support Specter, regardless of party affiliation, if he would support EFCA.
Senior officials with the powerful AFL-CIO have privately assured GOP Senator Arlen Specter that they’ll throw their full support behind him in the 2010 Senate race if he votes for the Employee Free Choice Act, a senior labor strategist working closely with the AFL on the issue tells me.
Specter announced that he didn't support EFCA (using the myth that EFCA removes the secret ballot as a reason) and in his party changing statement, Specter reiterated his lack of support.
My change in party affiliation does not mean that I will be a party-line voter any more for the Democrats that I have been for the Republicans. Unlike Senator Jeffords' switch which changed party control, I will not be an automatic 60th vote for cloture. For example, my position on Employees Free Choice (Card Check) will not change.
Specter clearly isn't going liberal...he just wants to win re-election. He knows he probably can't beat Pat Toomey in a primary so this move is pure politics. He is just saving his own skin.
A mere month ago, Specter told The Hill he intended to stay with the Republican Party.
I am staying a Republican because I think I have an important role, a more important role, to play there. I think the United States desperately needs a two party system. It is the basis of politics in America.
Obviously, disagree with his assessment that America "desperately needs a two party system". That being said, clearly political expediency trumped his belief about his important role in the two party system.
Staying a Republican would require Specter to defeat Toomey in a primary. Back in 2004, Specter beat Toomey by the slightest of margins. Since that time, Specter's approval ratings from Republicans have gone down the drain.
Voters approve 52 - 33 percent of the job Specter is doing, with a 71 - 16 percent positive score from Democrats and a 41 - 37 percent boost from independent voters, off-setting a 52 - 36 percent disapproval from Republicans. This is Specter's highest approval among Democrats and lowest approval among Republicans since Quinnipiac University began polling Pennsylvania in 2002.
With a disapproval rating that low, Specter could read the writing on the wall. A switch to the other side was in order to save his political hide.
Specter's switch won't alter the political landscape at all. While the Senate will technically have 60 Democratic seats, Specter will vote the same way he always has...62% with the Republicans. Specter's switch won't suddenly make him vote 62% with Democrats. It just won't.
It will, however, really piss off the Republican Party who will now be even less inclined to work with the Democratic Party. Prepare to see a whole lot of nothing getting done in government.
2 comments:
There seem to be a lot of people cheering about being one seat closer to the 60 seat filibuster proof senate but just because he changed his party affiliation doesn't mean he would block a republican filibuster.
On Monday, Specter stated that he was still mulling a filibuster on Dawn Johnsen, Obama's pick for DOJ's Office of Legal Counsel. After becoming a Democrat, he stated that he was opposed to Dawn Johnsen. Knowing he has no plans to vote for Johnsen, he could still back a filibuster. I doubt it since he is clearly in self-protection mode and pleasing the Democratic Party takes precedence over pleasing conservatives at this point.
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